The underlying theme for the day was ‘weak signals’ and we were lucky to have Elina Hiltunen from Nokia, a recognized authority on the topic, to present a history of thinking on the subject and stimulate discussion as to how this may evolve in the future.

Elina also introduced an interesting and useful tool for developing and supporting a culture of foresight in the organisation called the ‘Future Window’.

Anssi Tervonen from the Finnish consulting company Data Rangers, discussed weak signals in the context of his work on web-based tools for ‘trend management’.

Alun Rhydderch of the UK Horizon Scanning Centre explained how they approach the issue of identifying trends.

Irina Kuklina, Director of the ICISTE in Moscow provided a Russian perspective on weak signals.

Although Bob Frame from the Landcare Research Institute in New Zealand was not able to attend to tell us about his ‘100% Pure New Zealand’ foresight exercise, his presentation is available on the EFMN site and may be of interest for a variety of reasons including the reference to the use of games and TV screen plays in the context of a foresight exercise.

Click here to download the presentations made during the event.

Elina Hiltunen on ‘Weak Signals’

Elina described the history of thinking about weak signals starting with the first articles on the subject that appeared in 2000.

The earliest definition of a weak signal as ‘an early warning of change’ cleverly avoids telling us what ‘it is’ by describing what ‘it does’. This seems to have set the tone for later attempts, based for example on the idea that it ‘anticipates processes that have a radical impact on the future’.

There seems to be great potential for confusion on the topic. Although a literature on weak signals exists, there seems to be no generally accepted definition of what a weak signal is and how we might recognise one should it ‘come knocking at the door’.

In what sense is it a signal? In what sense is it weak? If a weak signal is ‘amplified’ by a story published in a newspaper does it stop being weak?

There is a lot of learned discussion as to how ‘it’ relates to other things – whatever ‘it’ is. For example it is not a trend but it could signal a trend. It is not a wild-card but there is a discussion as to how ‘it’ might relate to wild cards. Earlier thinking held that a weak signal should be meaningful-to or present-itself-to pioneers or special groups rather to than ‘experts’ on foresight or some related domain. More recently however the view is that a weak signal should not depend on an interpreter but should be recognizable by someone who has become expert at recognizing such things. Basic questions such as whether or not it is an event, whether or not it is an objective phenomenon seem undecided. More recently the debate seems to have dived into semiotics as part of on-going attempts to pin it down!

There were a few obvious omissions: concrete examples of weak signals or projects where weak signal analysis was applied with impressive or even merely useful results. Participants were asked to write down a list of what they considered to be weak signals. These were read out at the end and we all failed miserably. Most of what was presented was a trend or an event or a wild card or something we would name differently.

I guess the real issue is how to make a discipline out of watching for and interpreting signs that ‘change lies ahead’ and how to use this discipline to detect new signs or identify possible new changes to inform out thinking about the future. Even if we separate the observer from the observed as a reasonable working hypothesis, there are arguments from Popper based on relativity and from a vast array of thinkers based on information theory, complexity, chaos, morphogenesis and emergence to suggest that there are fundamental limits as to how far ‘back’ you can reasonably go to objectively identify signs of change.

Maybe a ‘weak signal’ is something that can only be known with hind-sight, something we can look back and recognise armed with future knowledge, but which was too weak to pick up as a signal farther back in time. Maybe we are doomed to never knowing better at that time or sooner than too late. Perhaps a weak signal is simply an illusion due to the kind of cognitive bias described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the philosopher-quant who wrote the ‘The Black Swan’ and ‘Fooled by Randomness’.

Most of those who work in foresight are familiar with the concept of a ‘megatrend’ from the work of John Naisbitt in 1982[1] that has been developed by many other writers since then. Fewer seem to know about the ‘Microtrend’ a concept developed by Mark J. Penn, who defines it as ‘an intense identity group that is growing, and that has needs and wants unmet by the current crop of companies, marketers, policymakers, and others who would influence society’s behaviour’. Although it is probably clear that a megatrend is not a weak signal, perhaps a microtrend is?

Some of the EFMN community probably know about the work of Stephen Pinker from The Edge Foundation on dangerous ideas ‘ideas that are denounced not because they are self-evidently false, nor because they advocate harmful action, but because they are thought to corrode the prevailing moral order.’ The emergence of a ‘dangerous idea’ may be a weak signal for something else waiting to change, but when?

Is it possible that for now a weak signal is simply ‘a literary device’[2] a place-holder for something that will make sense eventually? For now at least the sense-makers are busy sense-making, the discussion is interesting and no doubt will continue to be so, but there may be some work to be done to distinguish clever writing from insights that are useful and capable of application to the day to day of foresight practitioners.

The ‘Futures Window’

Elina introduced the ‘Future Window’ as a tool to present what could in effect turn out to be weak signals. This system relies on a ‘future reporter’ or that selects and publishes images intended to provoke thinking and talking about the future, via monitors that might appear in the lobby, elevator, toilet or screen saver. The images are gathered essentially from anywhere and from anyone - employees, friends, experts and associates … they include striking images and shots taken from websites, from taxis, from visits abroad … for example they included images such as an ad for a brand of beer for dogs that is brewed and sold in Japan … my own first reaction was ‘I wonder what it tastes like?’ … I did not like to talk about it at the time … but I can imagine it appealing to groups that stretch way beyond dogs to encompass dog-lovers expressing their solidarity to lager-louts, punks, real-lads and gothic women wearing studded collars … maybe this will

Trend Wiki a Technology for Collaborative ‘Trend Management’

Anssi Tervonen of Data Rangers in Finland described the lessons he has learned through his efforts to develop systematic approaches to gathering and managing trend data for foresight, business intelligence and other foresight-like company processes. They are currently working with a wiki-based platform that can be used by many parties, that facilitates real-time gathering, classifying, filtering, dispatching, notifying and reporting on the basis of standardized formats for data and processes. He described his earlier experiments on the basis of the 2001-2005, M-real project in which they pioneered many of their approaches, experimented with the use of agent-based software for the automated gathering of trend-data, and learned many of the lessons that informed the design of their Trend Wiki tool.

There was some discussion about weak signals and the way they might contribute to trend-based learning and knowledge accumulation, but without defining what they are but by comparison with ‘market signals’. Due to time constraints we did not get very far into important questions related to subjectivity, data-quality and validation, but this is certainly an important topic for the future and a demonstration of their technology is available online.

The Work of the UK Horizon Scanning Centre

Alun Rhydderch of the UK Horizon Scanning Centre the tools they use to anticipate alternative futures. Their recent work includes the development of 250 ‘scan issue papers’ and 16 ‘dimension papers’ dealing with policy oriented futures research questions. He described some of the techniques they use for identifying ‘dimensions of uncertainty’ that they use as a tool for motivating and facilitating futures workshops. He referred to the ‘sigma-scan’ project that concluded with 271 papers synthesizing the best futures work in the world, as well as to the ‘delta scan’ project that involved 250 scientists in the production of 100 papers with 50 year time horizons on scientific issues. The website is rich with resources and anyone embarking on a foresight exercise in the near future should give it a look.

A Russian Perspective

A representative of the Moscow based Centre for Study of International S & T and Education Programmes described the Russian approach to ‘weak signals’ and described two ideas, one which likened weak signals to nuclear forces which are strong but limited in size and in time, and another which likened them to gravitational forces, pervasive and weak but often neglected, even though they determine the large scale structure of the universe. She explained what these might be with reference to four topics:

• The environment, agriculture and human health
• Cognition
• The ‘road economy’ and the ‘road-less economy’
• The devaluation of patent law

Game-Play and Screen-Play in ‘Landcare Research’ Foresight for New Zealand

This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it from the Landcare Research Institute of New Zealand did not make it to Brussels to make a presentation on futures research in New Zealand. Nevertheless This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it , who is based in Brussels for the next few years to promote S+T collaboration between New Zealand and the EU, took part in the meeting on his behalf and provided a copy of his presentation to the EFMN.

It is a pity Bob could not make it, as there are a number of very interesting elements in his presentation that EFMN community members would have liked to discuss. For me the salient points had to do with the use of games in foresight, the use of TV screen-plays for the dissemination of scenarios and the discussion on the impact of their foresight programme entitled ‘100% Pure New Zealand’. This 5-year, €4M initiative dealt not just with the environment, but also with issues of identity, culture and colonial history. It involved 27 local authorities, resulted in the environmental accreditation of 200 companies, the involvement of 2,500 stakeholders in game-playing exercises, and 300,000 TV viewers for a series of specially developed screen-plays that presented the output scenarios as conversations set 50 years into the future. The website is quite extensive and the game-playing tools have been made available for download by anyone who wants to follow-up on this very interesting work.

The term ‘landcare research’ is of interest in that it does not seem to correspond to a traditional field of academic activity. It seems to be a more goal oriented cross-disciplinary initiative that could be of interest to many people involved in environmental, agricultural or rural-development work. The Landcare Research Institute is involved in many projects and programmes such as the prize winning carboNZero programme. Anyone who wants to involve them or any other partner from New Zealand in EU funded or other research projects should get in touch with Karla directly by This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

These are the opinions of Patrick Crehan, writing for the EFMN. Anyone with objections, clarifications or proposed modifications should send me an This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .